![]() Ceratitis capitata has become invasive throughout the world, whereas C. Main conclusions This study suggests that these species have broadly similar potential distributions worldwide (based on climate), although the potential distribution appears to be broader for C. capitata and comparison with other predictions suggest that GARP models offer more accurate predictions than PCA models. An evaluation using independent records from the adventive range for C. Differences in overlap of predictions from the two models for these species were observed. Worldwide, tropical and subtropical regions are highlighted as highly suitable for both species. capitata may be tolerant of a wider range of climatic conditions than C. rosa under both techniques, suggesting that C. ![]() Overall, the proportion of the region predicted to be highly suitable is larger for C. The drier regions of Africa (central and western regions of southern Africa and Sahelian zone) were identified as being less suitable for C. Results The two species appear to have broadly similar potential ranges in Africa and southern Europe, with much of sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar predicted as highly suitable. Methods Two correlative ecological niche modelling techniques, genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and a technique based on principal components analysis (PCA), were used to predict distributions of the two fly species using distribution records and a set of environmental predictor variables. Location Africa, southern Europe, and worldwide. Aim To predict and compare potential geographical distributions of the Mediterranean fruit fly ( Ceratitis capitata) and Natal fruit fly ( Ceratitis rosa).
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